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End of the drought???

Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2007 9:38 pm
by duane
Are we witnessing the end of the worst drought in living memory?

Two weeks ago we saw the first of (three) a deep low pressure system off the NSW coast. That system brought wide spread rain and flooding and a week later it was followed by another low which brought more rain. Sydney has recorded 374mm for the month up to 18 June, the wettest June in 44yrs, and another even deeper low system is building off the NSW coast again today.....the 19th June.

And at the same time an upper trough of moist air is being carried from northern Western Australia across to the tropical areas of eastern Queensland. This trough over the northwest is generating unseasonable rain over the northern tropics.

According to Peter Andrews this could be a signal of the end of the current drought across much of Australia.

climate change

Posted: Mon Dec 22, 2008 11:35 pm
by gavinfialkowski
you-d have to say the climate has changed and odds are its because of human intervention. polar ice caps that have been around for thousands of years are vanishing. I must say Peter's theory on land clearing being a major reason for climate change is an interesting one. I think if nsf was adopted wholus bolus that could make some significant improvements.

Posted: Tue Dec 23, 2008 6:45 pm
by ColinJEly
Hello Gavan
Some good books to read are; 'The Deniers' and 'Unstoppable Global Warming'. I had to get both of them via Amazon as I don't believe they have been released in Australia. In my mind they both convincingly shoot down the theory of human induced, CO2 driven global warming. :roll:
That is not to say that it doesn't behove all of us to be as non-poluting as possible. It would be interesting to get hold of the British Admiralty records for the Russian convoys and see the ice limits for those years and compare them with today. I read recently where they were blaming land clearing around Mt Kilamanjaro in africa for the melting of its glaciers due to the upsetting of the small water cycle and the increased local warming.
Dorothea McKellar said it all;
I love a sunburnt country
A land of sweeping plains
Of ragged mountain ranges
Of drought, and flooding rains.

Our climate has always been one of opposites and great variation. The great federation drought lasted about 10 years.
All we can do is make sure we have as much green cover as we can to mitigate the variability as much as possible.

Cheers

Col.

Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 12:38 pm
by duane
Back in June 2007 I posted above "End of the drought"

Are we witnessing the end of the worst drought in living memory?

Two weeks ago we saw the first of (three) a deep low pressure system off the NSW coast. That system brought wide spread rain and flooding and a week later it was followed by another low which brought more rain. Sydney has recorded 374mm for the month up to 18 June, the wettest June in 44yrs, and another even deeper low system is building off the NSW coast again today.....the 19th June.

And at the same time an upper trough of moist air is being carried from northern Western Australia across to the tropical areas of eastern Queensland. This trough over the northwest is generating unseasonable rain over the northern tropics.

According to Peter Andrews this could be a signal of the end of the current drought across much of Australia.


We have seen over the ensuing time since I posted that email that more rainfall has been spreading far and wide and that the areas of Queensland and WA are getting more and more rain.

As the landscape gets COOLER with all this rain, it saturates the ground and the landscape. And as we have stated elsewhere in this forum, rain tends to continue to fall on cool landscapes.

Cyclone Ellie has dumped a huge volume of rain in the north and WA is receiving similar amounts.

This is very similar to what happened in the 50's...a slow build up, over a number of years, of rainfall and rehydration. Finally, as the landscape filled with moisture and the soils were at their full capacity to take on any more water, the environment was suffiently cooler, that the next big rain event that came did not/could not infiltrate. Instead, it flooded across the landscape bringing total devastation.

We have cleared our landscape of the only protection it once had against the effects of a major flood and wet cycle...we have removed all of the vegetation. River banks denuded of vegetation by stock and willow removal will be savaged. Crop land fallow and empty of plants will be washed away. Salt will boil out of the ground making rivers, streams and town drinking supplies unusable.

THE IMPACT WILL BE DEVASTATING!!!!if it is indeed the same process as occured in the 50's.

In fact, it has the potential to be even worse!!

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2009 1:17 am
by bio-future
Don't discount the climate scientists yet.
It's easy to let industry with a vested interest spread their message. My only problem is on which side is it safer to error?

My own sense of caution says be frugal with fossil fuels and hopefully the world will want to stop driving everywhere. If the peak oilists have it right, then the farmer will inherit the earth.

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2009 10:01 am
by duane
As they should.....provided they care for the land they have stewardship over, understand how how natural processes work, and work with nature.

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2009 11:56 am
by ColinJEly
What does Haydon Walker (son of Lennox and grandson of Inigo Jones) predict? Like Dr Ian Plimer, he believes that the sun plays a large role in our climate.

Posted: Fri Jul 17, 2009 8:32 pm
by duane
Col

I will ask him. He just emailed me.

Some interesting Research!

Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:50 pm
by matt
Duane, Colin, biofuture and Gavin,
An interesting dvd i came about whilst living in the UK which you may or may not of seen was a dvd called 'The Great Global Warming Swindle'. Some very viable research on human interaction with the climate in regards to Co2 omissions and resulting temps. It was produced to combat the media with real science prooving that global warming is just propaganda or a political movement supported by the UN from research deriving from the IPCC. We've all prob seen Mr Algore's ' An inconvienient Truth' well i believe that this is also part of the propaganda that drives the world to believing that human produced Co2 is the death of us all! If our Co2, due to car fumes, industry, pollution etc are responsible for temp rise why is it then during the post war economic boom during 1940-1970 the temp dropped! (prof. Syn Ichi Akasofu- Inter Artic research centre) I would like to add that pollution still needs control!
Getting back to Colins comment, It seems the sun does drive temp with Co2 being a product or follower of temp. There is a relationship with solar activity and temp due to the ammount of sun spots on the sun ( see 1893 Edward maunders minimum, Piers Corbyn-weather action, plus colins referral to Dr Ian Plimer )
Check the dvd out, i would love to hear your views on it.

Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:41 pm
by otway-jack
Well said bio-future, done discount the climate scientist yet.

For those of you who wish to believe the climate sceptics, please do some homework on who the sceptics are and what there back ground is.

You will find that almost all the prominent climate sceptics in the US belong to one or both, the Marshal Institute or the Independent Institute.

Dr Frederick Seitz founded the Marshall Institute in 1984. Dr Seitz was the most prominent scientist to support the tobacco industries claims that smoking doesn't harm human health. He testified as an expert for the tobacco industries on many occasions.

The Marshal Institute and the Independent Institute have no credibility what so ever, they are at the service of the carbon industry. They should be listed in the yellow pages under, "Expert scientific oppinion for sale."

I have watched several of those sceptic doco's like 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' and I must admit, the carbon industies is almost as good as Hollywood.

Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 5:15 pm
by ColinJEly
Jack
I AM NOT IN THE PAY OF BIG OIL, THE TOBACCO INDUSTRY, OR EVEN THE MAKERS OF TUPPERWARE! GO DO YOUR SCIENTIFIC HOMEWORK, NOT PLAYING THE NAME BLAME GAME HOW MANY BILLIONS, YES BILLIONS OF YOUR HARD EARNED TAXES HAVE BEEN WASTED BY YOUR GOVERNMENT ON THE CLIMATE CHANGE INDUSTRY? DR IAN PLIMER IS A WORLD RESPECTED AND EXPERT GEOLOGIST.

I DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD, BUT DOROTHEA MACKELLER SAID IT ALL FOR US HERE IN AUSTRALIA


Acid Rain, Ozone Hole, Peak Oil, Ice Age, Y2K, SARS, Bird Flu, H1N1...Anthropogenic Global Warming...Ho Hum

Posted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 11:59 am
by duane
What we have been witnessing lately on the east coast and in central Australia are big wet systems finally deciding to drop their cargo on the cooler moist landscape.

Since I started this thread we have seen a situation begin to turn around where once our landscape was so hot, that rain when it fell, it fell out over the cooler oceans.

A rogue weather system started and now what we are seeing is as the landscape cools, and retains moisture, more and more rains will come.

Melbourne and Victoria had such a system yesterday; Lake George even has water in it.

If we manage the change that has occurred, by keeping ALL the plants that have grown as a result; the moisture in the system; if we do not slash and burn and spray out the unwanted spp, we have a huge opportunity ahead.

Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 12:53 pm
by matto
I have been watching weather maps since i was 13, 20 years of wanting to catch good surf, and the patterns of lows crossing australia from the NW to the SE of australia of late are truely impressing. I was at David Arnold's murrnong property on the weekend to see his design to turn the farm forest into a lake draining to a sump dam and then transfered to the main dam. First time the leaky weir has worked for 8 years. Brilliant work, check it out at the 3 min mark.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xOW-RdCFax0

Posted: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:12 pm
by orkut is safer
where does colin ely get off:

dorothea logic:

GO DO YOUR SCIENTIFIC HOMEWORK:

Acid Rain--simply means industrial-emissions arent carbon only

Ozone Hole--totally correct--care for melanoma or denying that aromatic
benzenes in car exhaust caused the new sunscreen hole??

Peak Oil--try your local astrologer for guess-estimating a not difficult to calculate oil--ie whether a certain quantity exists or doesnt, doesnt require world experts.

Ice Age--bound to happen in the tropics unless one cannot see outside of their speciality.
Meaning: DR IAN PLIMER IS A... GEOLOGIST--therefore the logic [sic] is that he must know all about climate,industrial chemistry, nuclear fallout--ie 40 % of total world energy and so forth.

The extrapolation being offered that an expert geologist proves climate-science is an absurdism.



Also:

Y2K--no power-supply was a preferred option??

SARS Bird Flu--yes animals ACTUALLY do carry disease.

H1N1...more poetry readings/ science as homework??

Anthropogenic Global Warming...as stated initially--synthetic INDUSTRIAL EMMISSIONS are not carbon alone--hence CO2 is only a crude tool regards actual effects.

Satellites show that each industrial-centre emits plumes of toxins--ie try your fertiliser/oil/gas complex in victoria--these plumes then stop precipitation from forming--perhaps a world map might really be a better investment than presuming dorothea speaks for anything REMOTELY known or proven.

much obliged

Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 6:29 am
by duane
Guys....I think we need to get back to the topic" Is this the beginning of the end of the drought?"

I guess as far as Qld is concerned and parts of NSW, the answer is YES!!